2019年6月3日 星期一

(權重股業績)823領展房產基金截至2019年3月31日止年度業績


823領展房產基金公布最新全年業績,截至2019年3月31日全年可分派收入為2.7117港元,對比上年全年的港元2.4978,按年增加8.56%。可分派總額為57.23億元,按年增5.38%;期內,按相同基準計算,收益及物業收入淨額分別按年增長7.2%及7.1%,若計及已收購、出售或新營運資產,收益及物業收入淨額分別按年增長0.1%及0.3%,至100.37億元及76.89億元。

除了派息持續提升,股價表現近期大幅跑贏恒指表現,根據業績報告提到,於2019年3月29日(3月31日為星期日沒有開市),股價為91.80元,上年同期則為67.00元,按年增長37%,反映領展價息齊升,完全達成股東回報最大化。

業績報告連結:

823領展截至2019年3月31日止年度之末期業績公告 

物業組合表現:

香港物業方面租用率繼續高企,截至2019年3月31日,香港零售物業租用率97.1%,與上年度97%接近。在香港停車場方面,領展持有約56000個停車場,收入按年增長9.4%。

(Source: 823領展截至2019年3月31日止年度業績)

中國內地物業方面,零售物業租用率98.5%。辦公室租用率95.5%。

每基金單位淨資產也按年增長,本年度為89.48港元,對比上年度的83.06港元按年增長7.7%。以執筆當日收市95.85港元計算,對應最新每股淨資產89.48港元,最新pb為1.07左右,對比其他地產或收租股股票,溢價明顯。業績年度內每基金單位基本盈利為9.56港元,最新市盈率(按照執筆6月3日時收市股價95.85)為10倍左右

領展2018/19年度與2019/20年度的重大物業調整:

1. 於2019年1月收購位於北京的京通羅斯福廣場。收購代價為人民幣25.60億元。

2. 於2019年3月完成出售香港12項物業。是次出售收益約27.61億港元。出售所得款項將用於香港及中國內地一線城市的新投資機會、償還債務、返還資本及一般企業用途。

3. 於2019年3月收購深圳怡景中心城。代價人民幣66.00億元。

4. 與南豐發展有限公司位於九龍東海濱道77號的合營發展項目海濱匯,已於2019年5月取得佔用許可證。合營架構為領展佔60%,南豐則佔40%。海濱道為什甲級辦公大樓,這裡會成為領展的新總部,其他租戶包括摩根大通、WeWork及金門建築等等。截至2019年3月底,過半數的零售及辦公室單位已經出租。



領展的優勢:

財力雄厚,資產與資金優勢明顯:

隨著香港租金市場增長放緩,數年來領展沽售多個在港的非核心物業取得龐大資金後,再把資金投放在內地的優質大型物業,配合加租,調整優化租戶組合,令內地收入足以抵銷在香港沽售而流失的非核心物業租金收入,由於領展在資產與資金上的優勢明顯,財務狀況極好,因此對比其他房託,能較易調整物業資產去做出較好的業績,以內地租務成為新的增長引擎,逐步取代香港漸趨平穩的市場

物業定位大眾民生所向,防守性較強:

面對經濟可能的下行,集團關注加租進程會否受到影響,而這視乎集團的物業租戶所經營的業務,對經濟下行有沒有防守性,領展的物業定位是偏向大眾化,民生所向,生活必須品,是大眾零售,並非偏向高端零售,因此對潛在經濟下行所受到的影響可能會較低,令業績表現能趨於穩中求進。

積極進行回購,對分派,基金價格表現有支持:

不同其他房託,領展經常在業績之後就公布回購計劃,並確實有依所說的進行,在剛剛的業績後已公布在市場條件適合的情況下,計劃回購6000萬個基金單位。回購這種財技的好處是藉著回購基金單位後再註銷,能間接令每股收益提升,這樣做的話,即使領展在年內收入完全沒有增長,但每基金收益與可分派股息都可以提升。且起碼在一定時間內,對股價有支持,以回購行動令市場覺得企業的股票有價值。

不是筆者要踩低其他房託,本身領展是隻大藍籌,與其他小型很多的房託比較,其他房託規模小很多。小型房託根本難以模仿領展邊收購物業,邊做回購,亦能每年度有較像樣的派息提升。亦因此領展雖然貴,但亦貴得有道理。

領展面對的威脅:

硬要提一點不足,威脅或負面因素的話,就是進軍內地後,規模,管理的範圍由過往集中於香港,變成中港兩邊都要兼顧,而現時中國方面要面對的是美國針對其發動的貿易戰,科技戰等,造成經濟倒退的可能而導致人民消費意欲,購買力下滑,再而影響領展旗下物業加租之進程。不過,根據領展的回應,該不利因素影響有限,皆因中國政府會推動刺激內需政策改善經濟,加上領展的物業較偏向大眾民生性質,即生活必須品,中美貿易戰的影響可能有限。

筆者對是次業績與領展之感覺:

業績很好,派息符預期,不會要求像過往增長好大,但偏向高單位數百分比增長絕對接受,還要考慮到股價跑贏恒指。股價現時對比其他收租股或房託來得明顯地貴,息率對應執筆當日6月3日95.85元,派息加完後亦不能達到3厘,要說買來收息較像開玩笑,現在買領展是搏佢繼續內地化來谷業績增長,去掉香港更多非核心資產後再來換取內地增長力較大的甲級物業,現在的領展由過往收息性質演變成增長性質。

基於組合內已經有一定倉位,再者筆者認為,雖然823是貴得有道理,但貴就是貴,息率不夠3厘以上就不會入手,除非股價會大幅回調至3厘以上,才可能留意,否則823暫時排除在考慮買入名單內。

業績之後大行評級:

摩根大通:評級“增持”,目標價108.6元
摩根士丹利:評級“與大市同步”,目標價93元
花旗:評級“買入”,目標價90元
德銀:評級“持有”,目標價84.75元
大和:評級“跑贏大市”,目標價100.80元
高盛:評級“中性”,目標價97元
瑞銀:評級“中性”,目標價99元
匯豐環球研究:評級“持有”,目標價99.50元


113 則留言:

  1. 領展的數據還是非常理想,AEI項目不斷上馬,貴為領展最高市值的樂富廣場還可以不斷翻新再翻新,對於內地項目,我作為小股東是很希望領展不要購入更多內地商場,始終內地每年也會有大量商場建成,競爭很激烈。如可以,還是購入更多地皮發展類似海濱匯這類穩定收租的商廈。但買入領展,就是買龍哥的眼光。領展長遠仍然優質,但太優質就不會便宜。

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    1. 的確像海濱匯那種甲級商廈較吸引,不過收購快很多佢地先做,佢地要趕著每年做返咁上下業績比班基金睇。

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  2. 900.HK shall be ex final div (HK$0.22/share) on 25Jun2019.

    And another interim div (at least HK$0.22/share) shall be ex div on Oct2019, ... just within 4 months shareholders shall receive HK$0.44/share or more!

    ^_^

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    1. 今年保守看沒有增加派息,一來業績唔睇好會點增長,再者公司要好多資本開支。

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    2. No worry!

      I suppose 900.HK earns around HK$400,000,000/year in coming 1-2 years. It is a cash cow and its cash flow is pretty good.

      I also think that its capital expenditures in these 2 years will be controllable.

      And from 2020/21, 900.HK will be benefited from these high-tech capital expenditures.

      Have lunch first!

      ^_^

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    3. Hi Student Sir,

      Do you think today is a good time to buy 900.HK at $7.35? Or we could wait for even lower price?

      Cheers,
      Ric K. ;)

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    4. Hi Ric,

      It's hard to say!

      Investors have different backgrounds, such as stocks portfolio and available idle cash.

      For me, I already have proper % of 900.HK in my stocks portfolio for receiving dividends income in long run's thought.

      I suppose I shall receive dividends of HK$0.22 + HK$0.22 = HK$0.44 within the coming 5 months (i.e. from Jun to 31October2019) from 900.HK,

      so that HK$7.36 - HK$0.44 = HK$6.92(ex. div. share price after 31October2019)

      and its dividend yield will then become HK$0.44/HK$6.92 x 100% = 6.36%p.a.

      I am satisfied with this, ... but I have no crystal ball to predict the market atmosphere in coming months.

      In any time, investors must have to be mentally well prepared in buying and holding any assets, ... not just stocks.

      Good Luck!

      ^_^

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    5. Hi Student Sir,

      Thank you very much for your thorough reply. Your guiding questions are inspiring.

      I am holding 70% cash and I think I should not buy more stocks at this moment. To me >6% p.a. is acceptable for 900.HK

      I think I will observe some more days. Thank you. ;)

      Cheers,
      Ric K.

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  3. 早幾日把握機會2.78加注1883,現時平均成本2.41,息率有7.5厘。

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    1. 平均價低仲要收過息,即實際成本仲要低d,咁樣長擺係度冇問題,息率夠高就得。

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  4. An simple observation:~

    939.HK now HK$6.17(601939.SH now RMB7.19)
    1398.HK now HK$5.63(601398.SH now RMB5.80)

    939.HK and 1398.HK ... Which is "relatively cheaper" ?

    ^_^

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    1. 兩隻實力接近,折讓就939大點,表面上939平過1398,但平一點可能要考慮埋早前包商銀行單野。所以真係差唔多。

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    2. 939.HK has "lower PB" as well as "higher dividend yield" than 1398.HK.

      In view of the size of 939.HK, that particular small bank is insignificant to it.

      ^_^

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  5. Believe it or not?

    China has just issued four 5G licences yesterday.

    It wants to equip itself a leading world 5G network.

    China has almost 1/5 population of whole world.

    ^_^

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    1. 中國冇咁易被打倒的,5g步伐不會輕易停滯不前。

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    2. 今日直接發出4張5g 商用牌,其中一家未聽過,即意味鐵塔就來多個新的股東

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    3. 鐵塔係估值太高,同埋不是高息股,否則都有興趣。

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    4. 鐵塔 買前境....無息我都唔係太鐘意...不過長線睇佢升股價有得諗...不過唔知要幾耐都幾長...:P

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    5. 宜家局勢對鐵塔黎講惡搞,近期升返浸都係短炒政策消息,消化完就又跌過。冇息唔買了,自己還是喜歡悶蛋型收息股,像公路,收租個d。

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    6. 我都同你一樣取向...有多份糧出幾好呀...

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    7. 雖然有人常說襯後生時,搵d增長股買下,等長線增值,唔好咁保守買哂收息股。但自己怕有些所謂增長股,增長不成息又派不到,到時兩邊唔到岸仲死,所以一路只會買收息股,悶悶咁賺少少算數。

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  6. A good lesson:~

    Since yesterday there were so many people walking outside, today's HS Index goes up and up to reflect that international money would not be withdrawn from HK market!

    Stock markets are reflecting investors' confidence!

    ^_^

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  7. I wonder why 576.HK just invested RMB1010M to buy a hotel which only contributed around RMB5~6M profit for 2018 (i.e.0.5% ~ 0.6% of RMB1010M). Why ?

    ######

    At present market prices, it seems that 995.HK and 107.HK are also attractive, in long run's thought.



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    1. 576係有點不明所以,這些公路企業有的是錢,業務現金流又很好,多錢就四圍買野,有錢賺唔理多或少都照投資入去。

      995本身唔錯的,只是公路年期好像也不太長,望的是合寧高速擴建可以申請收費年期延長,上年度995終於肯加派息,長年都派人仔0.23,上年度有突破,是好事。

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    2. 995.HK earned RMB0.6725/share for 2018 and paid yearly dividend of RMB0.25/share, i.e. Dividend pay-out = 0.37%.

      It still had profit growth of 7.8% in 1st quarter of 2019.

      It has low gearing, i.e. much bank and cash balances, but relatively little bank borrowings.

      In conclusion, 995.HK can pay much more cash dividends in coming years.

      ^_^

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    3. Correction: 576.HK's "new" hotel only contributed RMB4.96M for 2018, not RMB5~6M.

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    4. 招商公路持有大概30%皖通高速(A+H)的总权益,比大股东只差一点点。其中持有H股的总权益18%(占总权益的大概5~6%)大部分都是于2015年买入的,买入的最高价是5.65元左右。皖通占招商公路的投资比重相当高,相信招商公路是非常看好皖通的前景的。

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    5. 感謝意見提供,近期也有留意皖通,5元以下的價格確是夠便宜與合理。

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  8. 大家可以準備香檳迎接LINK晉升紅底股的一刻!

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    1. If so, Will you sell a little of 823.HK?

      ^_^

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    2. 唔掂個班都冇沽擺左係度,冇理由表現好個批要被沽吧。

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    3. 823.HK is definitely a property investment company, should investors also consider its PB, Dividend Yield at >HK$100 ?

      ... Just discussion ...

      ^_^

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    4. 對比恒地 新地 九倉等地產/收租股,領展的估值的確是很貴。不過買的是較低位置,就沒有沽出的打算,除非變質得非常緊要。

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  9. https://www.edigest.hk/104496/investment/%e4%b8%ad%e7%be%8e%e8%b2%bf%e6%98%93%e6%88%b0-%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82-%e8%82%a1%e6%81%af-%e6%b1%bd%e8%bb%8a%e8%82%a1-%e5%85%a7%e6%88%bf%e8%82%a1-%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%9c%89%e9%81%93/31/

    10隻10厘高息股,邊隻買得過? 本人覺得3383好似最好🤔,你地又點睇呢?

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    1. 覺得不錯是1122慶鈴,709佐丹奴,6033電訊數碼。有部份高息得來相對投資風險很高,像必瘦站,行業風險較高所以回報也很高,睇你夠唔夠膽搏;

      首創,富力印象中(不太肯定)在內房中是幾重債那一班,感覺一般般。地產股我偏向是要投資物業業務佔比不能太細,愈多商場商廈收租愈好,收益能不斷循環往復,現金流穩定,內房中的1109是其中一隻就最做到賣樓同收租雙平衡的內房,首創這類應未能做到。

      太平洋網絡dup完,業績見底回升,不過未知業績回勇能否持續,太平洋幾肯派息,算是良心公司,也可買點。

      個人都是支持慶鈴,佐丹奴較多。

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    2. I have invested 709 Giordano too, it's announced the sales figure dropped ~11% in the first quarter. It seems not good in coming semi yearly report. But it's annual dividend is over 9% now, hope it's return would not drop too much by cost saving ....

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    3. 望佢業績能只倒退低單位數,派息做心理準備減少少,畢竟見佢派息派得算幾盡。

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    4. Yes, agreed.
      It's dividend payout ratio as high as a REITS.
      I think the recent price dropping reflected the investor expect the dividend amount would be cut in coming year ...

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  10. 709 係有d 吸引力
    1122 衰係H 股
    12 號現階段建倉一流

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    1. 唔買著睇定先,近期太多亂局,隨時買後變成今日低位,明日高位,除息期都過了,也不用太急。

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    2. 若然慶鈴近年尾有咁嘅價,先至有咁嘅吸引力。
      而家入慶鈴時間值損耗太高,此一時彼一時呀!

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    3. 重點是較怕內地汽車市場未能完全復甦,而慶鈴的車種類別冇咩話很獨特,有不少類型其他汽車企業都有,市場優勢不算太明顯,不能好像比亞迪獨特在電動車市場,長汽拿手在SUV市場。

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    4. 筆仔都出咗業績,都跌到接近六厘息,呢啲生意又係長做長有,睇下有冇機會低級下先。

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    5. 呢隻業務在上市公司中算較少有,很久以前有買過,派息一路算幾好,係近一年業績見左頂冇法。

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  11. Will 113.HK be a tomorrow star?

    Over the past 1 week, the major shareholder of 113.HK, Dickson Poon, is repeatedly buying more shares.

    ^_^

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    1. P.S. Now that his shareholding is 57.68% only. He still has room to increase this percentage.

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    2. 本人愛股重上10蚊,算係近期強勢股😆

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    3. 年初至今升左1倍,核心優質股不沽X3

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    4. 迪生創建我記得你早前提過,呢隻勁野,近幾年股價條向上斜坡,加上派息也在年年增加中。

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    5. 奧園在內房中又係優質股,恭喜持有3883的bro,眼光好,又創新高。

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  12. 開始分批入14
    3個月低位
    股息差不多3.7%
    買黎儲貨 :)

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  13. Alibaba will be coming soon.

    Hong Kong add oil!

    ^_^

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  14. 995.HK has momentum ... see whether it can goto HK$5.

    ^_^

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    1. P.S. At HK$5, I guess its expected dividend yield for 2019 still has 6%p.a.

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    2. Student CHing, how does it compare with 1052?

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    3. Hi Murcielago,

      Just call me Student is OK. ^_^

      ######

      Both 1052.HK & 995.HK have sound dividends history.

      But for the fiscal year 2018, 995.HK's dividends pay-out was only 37% of Net Profit.(while 1052.HK was 54%) That means 995.HK has room to increase this percentage in 2019.

      Secondly, 995.HK had announced its 1st Quarter 2019's results (with a profit growth of 7.8%) but 1052.HK will only disclose its 6-months results in Aug2019. (I treat this as an uncertainty.)

      Thirdly, maybe the most important, 995.HK has the "lowest gearing ratio" c.f. all similar companies such as 177.HK, 576.HK, 1052.HK, 107.HK, so that I think 995.HK will give me assured long run dividends income.

      ^_^

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    4. P.S. Anyway, 1052.HK itself is a good company, ... it is a Greater Bay Area stock ... I think so.

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    5. 今日升得咁精彩,惜工作忙到也沒多時間看市。

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    6. Forest,

      No worry, your portfolio members are overall "good and safe".

      ^_^

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    7. 近期見不少blogger一係撤走哂港股去美股,一係就想同準備撤,不多不少也會縮一縮的。

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    8. But H shares are trading at significant discounts c.f. A shares of same companies. I think that more and more China investors/funds are willing to buy HK stocks when our stocks are cheaper and cheaper than before.

      If you believe "China economy" will be greater in the future, I think HK stocks market will be greater as well.

      Besides, Alibaba will be listing here ... soon!

      ^_^

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  15. Forest,
    短期內大阪G20峰會的舉行是否有利股市仍是未知之素,
    不過今日港股的漲幅都是近期的喜訊吧,
    好期望領展上到*紅底*的一日

    之前睇過幾位BLOGGER分析後,
    唔知有冇機會搵到低位入1883建倉

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    1. 有機會低買的,我都係等待g20後睇情況入市。

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  16. 如果看好工行,買A 股工行會有相同效益嗎?大家有咩意見?

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    1. At present market prices, I am holding 939.HK rather than 1398.HK.

      Reasons:~
      1. More dividend yield, and
      2. 939.HK has much more discount than 1398.HK when compare with A shares.

      ^_^

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    2. Today the market proves 939.HK is better than 1398.HK.

      But it may be just the beginning ......

      ^_^

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    3. At present market prices, 939.HK is the best among the "Big 4".

      ^_^

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  17. 900 今天跌到7.4,仲係除淨前跌,攪乜呢!

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    1. 應該是不看好第1季業績吧,襯有得升高就走,怕業績唔好,加埋除淨日過埋股價就沒有支持。

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    2. 第2個可能性是見個市又好轉返,從一些不跟大市走的股票中撤走先,將錢轉去指數或貼近大市行的股票炒多一轉,反正aeon股價今年已見頂,未來不難較低價買回。

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  18. how's everyone view on 87001? I have been watching it for half a year. reading into the fin report 2018, the dividend is up to 8.xx% but then the payout ratio always exceeding 100%.
    the NAV value indeed is above 4.xx which is above its stock price but its decreasing from 7 or 6.xx to 4.xx since 5 years ago. Every day the NAV drop a bit but its amazingly the dividend is still 7-8% of stock price.
    i cant quite understand how this can sustain in long run?
    but then CKH is one of the main shareholders now since 2017 .

    any one got some other angles to look at it.

    i wanted to put my RMB to this one but after reading some facts of droping NAV and dividend payout ratio always exceeding 100%, i am kind hesitated and not sure if this would be a long terms sustainable investment...

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    1. **not Every day the NAV drop a bit*** i mean every year the NAV drops a bit..haha

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  19. I have some 87001 and I think it can committ to stable dividend at 8 %. I recommend it if you look for stable return.

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  20. 我渣左87001左右4年,用股票apps ticker計,每年回報率大約8至9%左右,2017年9%,2018年9%,2019年至今8.6%,如果你人仔長揸,唔會轉返港紙,87001好過做人地定期好多,買入價通常係中期除淨之後,佢會跌至大約3蚊邊,果時係最好買入價位,87001公布全年業績前兩個月會開始回升,呢個係我近呢三年觀察所得。

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  21. Good news for 778.HK :~

    778.HK shall be voluntary delisting from Singapore Stocks Market.

    It will be a 100% HK Reit!

    ^_^

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  22. At HK$6.25, 900.HK(Aeon Credit) has >6%p.a. dividend yield now!

    Anybody is buying now?

    ^_^

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    1. 望埋今日業績先算,好定唔好我也不理了,擺埋一邊,佢有咁上下息派就算。

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    2. 早幾年前經常做差價交易,成日睇著炒上落,訓覺都夢到炒股,已經覺得厭煩,轉做收息後感覺較舒服點,買d悶股係收佢兩期息就搞掂,其他都懶理。

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  23. "True" retail cash cows: 113.HK & 398.HK

    "False" retail cash cows: 178.HK & 345.HK

    But most investors only focus on "False" items!

    ^_^

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    1. 維他奶估值太貴,業績稍有少少不如如期,股價都要大幅插水,息率也因股價太高變成不吸引。

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    2. Sometimes stocks investment is not so difficult!

      They are all retail stocks.

      When considering the market prices, both "NAV" and "Net cash Per Share" of 398.HK & 113.HK are much more attractive than 178.HK & 345.HK.

      Why not do "stocks switching" ?

      ^_^

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    3. 113 398估值非常合理,息率都很不錯,113主席也有增持,但個人感覺高端零售業務面對經濟下行防禦力較低,怕業績將受考驗。不過息率夠高能下降投資風險。

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    4. Their defences are :~

      113.HK now HK$4.38 (NAV = HK$6.3; Net cash per share = HK$4.3)
      398.HK now HK$2.30 (NAV = HK$3.9; Net cash per share = HK$1.8)

      ^_^

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    5. P.S. Not to mention their dividend yields ... These can be easily found out by anyone. ^_^

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    6. I note that 113.HK has only limited sellers today.

      I think many individual shareholders are expecting what the "ceiling share price" that Sir Dickson Poon, the major shareholder, is still willing to buy more of it.

      ^_^

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  24. For 398.HK : I think a 52-weeks new high will be coming soon in view of its exceptionally high dividends.

    ^_^

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  25. 900 第1季業績已出,基於減值準備與虧損增加,盈利沒有進一步增長,業績終於要錄倒退了。

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    1. 900今年波幅預期會在6.8至7.35呢個區間行走,對應息率6至6.5厘。

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    2. 自佢市場開拓成功後業績都升了差不多兩年了,冇可能年年高雙位數百分比咁增長,加上經濟增長放緩也有很大影響,900都係時間要抖抖。

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  26. Topics:~

    Will 005.HK exercise "share buy-backs" in 2nd half year of 2019 ???

    Will 2318.HK(already holding 7.01%) buy more shares of 005.HK ???

    ^_^

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    1. 005.HK pays dividends US$0.51 per share per annum.

      If yield @6%p.a., share price = US$0.51/0.06 = US$8.50 = HK$(8.50 x 7.8) = HK$66.30

      Will 005.HK "easily" go to HK$66.30 ???

      If any one of the abovementioned "Topics" happens, I think 005.HK may go to >HK$70.

      ^_^

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    2. Besides, 2888.HK is now >HK$68 ...
      but 005.HK is now < HK$65 ...

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    3. 還得看恒指會點走,g20後便有分曉。

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    4. My strategies are : "Always holding the best!" and "Looking for long run dividends income".

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